The above chart shows normalised implied probabilities derived from prices on the Betfair Exchange. Each line represents a selection within a specific political betting market. For each timestamp, the last traded price is converted into an implied probability using the standard formula: Implied probability = 1 ÷ price. Because exchange markets typically include an overround, these raw probabilities are then normalised so that the total across all selections equals 100% at each time point.
The data are sourced from Betfair Exchange market prices and updated periodically, typically every three hours. To maintain clarity, selections that never exceed a minimum threshold may be omitted. Market prices reflect trading activity and liquidity conditions. They may react to news, sentiment, positioning and market depth. This chart should therefore be understood as a visualisation of market expectations, not predictive certainty.